Key analysis: Plenty at stake in North London derby when Spurs host Arsenal
Last season, a resurgent Arsenal had surprised many by sitting in the drivers seat for Champions League football with three games to go, needing a win versus Spurs or six points from their last two games to clinch the fourth spot and reach the main European club tournament for the first time since 2017.
Neither matured. A comprehensive 3-0 victory by Spurs blew the race for fourth wide open and with Arsenal losing their next game against Newcastle as well, Champions League football was suddenly for Spurs to lose and that, they did not.
‘Typical Arsenal’, the fans of the Gunners lambasted. ‘How very unspursy’, the fans of the Lilywhites replied, as both teams have a knack for embracing the misery of not winning anything (major) as part of their identity.
However, for Arsenal, things seem to have turned as they lead the league this season after 17 games. Is this a different Arsenal? A winning Arsenal?
To erase the ghosts from last season, they will want to follow up their victory at home in October over the Spurs with a win in the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this Sunday as well.
However, Spurs have every reason to feel confident as they are unbeaten at home against the Gunners since March 2014, when current Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta (40) was still an Arsenal player.
At the top on merit
It’s been a long time since Arsenal have started the season as well as they have. In fact, since the inception of the Premier League, only four teams have had more than Arsenal’s 44 points after 17 matches.
However, those teams (Chelsea under Mourinho, Manchester City under Guardiola twice, and Liverpool under Klopp) were considered some of the finest of their era. Labelling this Arsenal side as such is quite a stretch. However, it does not mean that this team is a fluke.
According to Stats Perform’s Expected Points model, Arsenal were set to have around 36 points based on their performances so far. Despite this being eight points fewer than they actually have, it would still rank them second compared to the other team’s performances. As in the real standings, Tottenham lag a bit behind their rivals but are still very much a top-four candidate in this model.
Milestone hunting
The biggest challenge for Arsenal and the biggest advantage for Tottenham Hotspur is the availability of their top strikers.
Gabriel Jesus (25) has had a real impact since joining Arsenal in the summer but picked up a serious injury during the World Cup. Despite not being an out-and-out goalscorer, his qualities were missed as the Gunners drew 0-0 against Newcastle United in their most recent league outing.
On the other hand, Harry Kane (29) steered his side to a 4-0 victory at Crystal Palace with a brace and assist in the second half after a lacklustre Spurs performance in the first.
That Harry Kane masterclass came in his 300th Premier League game and saw him score his 197th and 198th goals. The two goals saw him nudge ahead of Alan Shearer (in goals after 300 matches) in his pursuit of becoming the top Premier League goalscorer of all time.
Another brace would see Harry Kane become the third player with 200 Premier League goals, after Alan Shearer (260) and Wayne Rooney (208) and the first to do it for one club.
Scandinavian talismans
Both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur will expect big performances from their Scandinavian starlets.
For Tottenham Hotspur, Dejan Kulusevski (22) has truly been a marvel since joining from Juventus. So far this season, he has not lost a league game as a starter (W5, D3), with Spurs losing five of their 10 without the Swede (W5).
His impact also shows up in the numbers. Among players with at least 500 minutes in the league, he averages 2.3 successful dribbles per 90 minutes, only second to Said Benrahma. And when it comes to Expected Assists per 90 minutes, he averages an xA of 0.35, second only to Kevin De Bruyne (0.51) among players with at least 500 minutes this season.
What makes it even more impressive is that Kulusevski managed all of this from open play, as he is not the designated set-piece taker, unlike De Bruyne.
De Bruyne became one of the best Premier League midfielders ever after being let go by Chelsea, whereas Kulusevski already looks a bit of a slip-up by Juventus, who dumped the midfielder at Spurs for a fairly sweet prize.
In Martin Odegaard (24), it appears Arsenal have unearthed a gem with a similar story. After several loan spells away from Real Madrid, the Norwegian midfielder has now found a home in London and at only 24, it seems the best is yet to come.
This season, just like Kulusevski, Martin Odegaard ranks in the top 10 in terms of Expected Assists per 90 minutes (0.27) but he also makes an impact as a goalscoring threat.
Of all players to have played at least half of the possible minutes, he is the only one to have an xG AND an xA of 0.25 per 90 minutes or higher.
In 16 league games this season he has either scored (7) or assisted a total of 12 goals already, which is already a personal best in one season in a top-5 league. Whereas Arteta gets a lot of credit for Arsenal’s resurgence, Odegaard surely is the catalyst on the pitch, as highlighted by how the team fares in his absence.
There have been seasons where the North London Derby was a neighbour rivalry without much of a competitive meaning, but with Arsenal and Tottenham both in the upper echelons of the Premier League, this season surely is not one of them.