Key analysis: Manchester fortunes hinging on midfield maestros
The game reiterated the enormous task that new United boss Erik ten Hag had at his hands. Instead of hoping for silverware, a run at a top-4 spot and thus a return to the Champions League should already be deemed a success, with neighbours City and rivals Liverpool surely still out of sight.
Flash forward to now and things feel quite a bit different. Ever since that loss, United have won seven of their 10 PL matches, losing only once (D2), with only surprise package Newcastle United picking up more points during that stretch (24) than Ten Hag’s men (23, tied with Arsenal). Manchester City lie in second, five points behind Arsenal and only four points ahead of Manchester United and with the two facing each other on Saturday, it surely feels as if this rivalry has been more in the balance than it has been in years and the focus will likely be on two midfield maestros.
King Casemiro
The one area in which United have improved incredibly over the last 10 league games is defence. In that stretch, the team conceded only six goals, after having shipped a miserable 14 in the first seven games of the season. The main difference between the two stretches is an all-conquering rock in midfield, the Brazilian veteran Casemiro. His impact shows up in the stats, with the team looking way more controlled and composed since the midfielder entered the starting line-up:
Casemiro’s terrific performances also show up in the individual statistics, as during that 10 game period, the midfielder ranks second for most duels won (77, see graphic below), joint-sixth for tackles won (19), joint-eighth for possession won (73) and, rather surprisingly for someone who is mainly known for breaking up play, eighth in Expected Assists (1.88). Casemiro has frustrated Manchester City before, knocking out City twice in their pursuit of Champions League success and the five-time (!) winning CL midfielder is likely keen on not breaking the habit.
Curious Kev
Whereas Manchester United have been reinvigorated by an experienced midfielder, the lack of production of another is a concern for Manchester City. Kevin De Bruyne shared in the misery of his Belgian teammates during the World Cup, but whereas that could have been attributed to collective failure, De Bruyne is now eight PL games without an assist and a total of five games without a goal or assist. The 31-year-old has only gone more than five games without a PL goal or assist once before in his career (10 games in 2018-19). Is age catching up with Kev, after playing more than 10 seasons at the highest level?
Well, only three players have had more shots than Kevin De Bruyne over the last five games (15) and no-one can match his league-leading 19 created chances, so the answer is likely no. Looking into Expected Goals & Assists, he ranks fourth over the last five PL games.
In fact, he is the only player in the top-15 of Expected Goals & Assists without a goal or assist in that period. Surely a statement performance is just around the corner. Despite not getting an assist for eight games, De Bruyne still leads the assists charts with nine this season and the Belgian could in fact become the fourth player finishing five different seasons in double figures in terms of assists, after Cesc Fabregas (6), Ryan Giggs and Wayne Rooney (both 5).
Regardless, big games are expected of two of the finest midfielders in the world. For Manchester United, a win could inspire hopes of a Premier League title for the first time since 2012-13, coincidentally the last time they finished above Manchester City. For Pep Guardiola’s men, a win is needed to keep pressure on Arsenal in pursuit of a fifth Premier League win for the Spanish manager.
