Flashscore analysis: Can Bayer Leverkusen become Bundesliga champions?

Bayer Leverkusen's start to the season - 35 points from the first 13 games - has been historically strong. However, Bayern Munich are still hot on the heels of the Rhinelanders. They could even have been top of the table, but their home game against Union Berlin had to be cancelled on Saturday due to heavy snowfall. However, the Bundesliga table will only be truly meaningful after matchday 17, when the first half of the season is officially over.

Until then, Bayern remain the favourites for the title. Led by Harry Kane, the German record champions can't stop winning. Nevertheless, Leverkusen have a huge opportunity to sit on the Bundesliga throne for the first time after five runner-up finishes to date.

"We are in a good moment. But there are still many games to play. Every opponent is very tough. But I'm happy with the idea and the commitment of the players. They're hungry, we'll see," Alonso said at the end of October.

STRENGTHS

Xabi Alonso: Instilling the recipe for success

First and foremost, Leverkusen have coach Xabi Alonso to thank for this. The 2010 world champion has a clear idea of how to play. A touch of tiki-taka, mixed with intelligent counter-pressing and plenty of individual quality - Alonso has instilled a completely new DNA into his team in recent months.

This was made possible with the help of Simon Rolfes. The sporting director was exemplary in bagging one top deal after another in the last transfer window. Players such as Granit Xhaka, Jonas Hofmann and Alejandro Grimaldo proved to be ideal additions to an already above-average Bundesliga squad. Nevertheless, they only made a relatively small loss of 12.1 million euros in the transfer market (according to transfermarkt.de).

Xabi Alonso's preferred starting line-up realises the 42-year-old's ideals on the pitch. His team usually adopts a 3-4-2-1 formation, with each individual player having very specific tasks in this system. Distributed responsibility is just as much a key to success as their extremely clean passing game. 87.3 percent of passes reach their teammates, which is currently the best figure in the league.

On the fourth Bundesliga matchday, Leverkusen also demonstrated a certain adaptability in the big match against Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena. Bayern took the lead in the seventh minute through Harry Kane. Leverkusen had great difficulties getting into the game before Alonso made a few seemingly minor adjustments around the 20th minute, with his team eventually travelling home with a 2-2 draw.

Thanks to his career as a world-class professional, Alonso not only has the necessary expertise to develop a concept - but also the necessary authority and life experience to convey it to his players in a profitable way.

In an interview with DAZN, midfielder Granit Xhaka explained: "There was a situation where we weren't training so well. Then he pulled us together and said: We can't go on like this! Maybe that's exactly what we were missing. We have to keep our feet on the ground and say: 'Okay, it's not enough if we train well for six days and not so well for one day'. He wants full concentration and passion every day."

Transfer market: Opportunity to change direction

In the recent past, Leverkusen were primarily known for their ferocious attacking football. The Werkself's centrepiece was the right wing pairing of Moussa Diaby and Jeremie Frimpong. Diaby moved to Aston Villa for 55 million euros in the summer. Surprisingly, the Frenchman was not replaced by a similar type of player, but by Jonas Hofmann (31).

Diaby usually holds his position in the right third of the attack, while Hofmann is much more active. Although the German international lacks pace compared to Diaby, he makes up for this with other skills. He impresses with a high level of intelligence, great passing accuracy and pronounced defensive diligence.

Alonso utilises these strengths in a variety of ways. Hofmann has several tasks on the pitch. He can either make runs from deep, thereby tying up an opposing defender - or he can move into the centre and create space on the wing for the quick-as-an-arrow Frimpong.

But it's not just his behaviour without the ball that is remarkable. The former Gladbach player is also effective with the ball at his feet. In 13 Bundesliga appearances to date, he has 12 goal involvements (5 goals, 7 assists).

Another important addition in the transfer market was Alejandro Grimaldo (28). For years, the left side of defence was considered the achilles heel of the Werkself. Lured by Alonso's charisma, Grimaldo opted for a free transfer to Leverkusen in the summer, and the signing has already paid off. 

Compared to Jeremie Frimpong, he has significantly more defensive duties. He operates more as a classic left-back, making Bayer's 3-4-2-1 look more like a 4-2-3-1. Nevertheless, Grimaldo does get involved in the offence in certain situations. Typically, he starts an overlapping run on the left flank, is sent in by playmaker Florian Wirtz and then sets up his teammates with a pinpoint cross.

His greatest weapon is his left foot. The Spaniard has already scored three times from distance and twice from direct free-kicks. Grimaldo feels right at home on the Rhine, which he owes first and foremost to his compatriot Xabi Alonso: "When you have a coach of Xabi's calibre, you get better every day. He talks to me a lot and knows how to place figures perfectly. He shows me how to feel comfortable in the positions I play."

Granit Xhaka came from Arsenal for 15 million euros. On the pitch, the Swiss is characterised by his calm charisma and precise passing. Off the pitch, he shines with his great ambition and irrepressible will to win - an element that the five-time German runners-up have lacked in the past. It is not without reason that Xhaka is fondly called "Boss" by his teammates.

The fact that Xhaka could be lured to the Rhine delighted those at the club. When analysing the squad last winter, Simon Rolfes and Xabi Alonso had already stated that"if we bring in experience, then we bring in quality." In an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung in mid-September, Rolfes stated: "The six is a key position, if you want top quality, experience and personality, the list is no longer very long."

WEAKNESSES

Rotation: Many question marks

The principle of "never change a winning team" is very important at Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso has used the same starting XI for 10 of the 13 Bundesliga matches to date. Changes have only been made in exceptional cases. So far, Alonso has only used the group stage of the Europa League to make deliberate changes.

This is an approach that is problematic for various reasons. Some players could become unhappy with sitting on the bench in the long term. Furthermore, the coach has been extremely successful with his system, but it is heavily dependent on the abilities of certain individuals.

The Bundesliga season lasts 34 matchdays so injuries, yellow card suspensions and red cards cannot be permanently avoided. Players such as Adam Hlozek, Nathan Tella, Robert Andrich, Piero Hincapie and Josip Stanisic have great quality. However, the likelihood that they will be able to bring what Alonso wants to the pitch without extensive match practice is extremely low.

An additional risk factor is the African Cup of Nations in January. Bayer Leverkusen will be missing four players in the winter. Edmond Tapsoba (Burkina Faso), Odilon Kossounou (Ivory Coast) and Victor Boniface (Nigeria) are three starting players who will be away.

Josip Stanisic, Piero Hincapie and Patrik Schick are available as replacements. However, Leverkusen must hope to be spared the bad luck of injuries in the coming months. Rolfes may have to make further improvements in the coming transfer window.

FC Bayern: Mental advantage for defending champions

Bayern Munich have already celebrated 33 German championships. Thomas Tuchel also knows what it takes to celebrate a title; eleven trophies have already made themselves at home in his trophy cabinet - including the 2020/21 UEFA Champions League.

Last season's final served as irrefutable proof of the natural law that "Bayern always win in the end". The charisma of superstar Harry Kane injected Munich with additional class and confidence.

Although the defending champions' style of play is less attractive than that of Bayer Leverkusen, it promises much more success in the long term. FC Bayern have conceded the fewest goals in the Bundesliga season to date (9 in 12 games) and have a better xG value than the current leaders (37.9 compared to 31.5).

In fact, Bayern can only beat themselves. In other words, despite an outstanding season, Leverkusen will probably be depending on a slip-up from the competition.

Prediction

A well-known saying goes: "Offence wins games, defence wins championships." Bayer Leverkusen play brilliant football, but the Munich team exude more stability. That's why I believe that Bayern Munich will win the race in the end - for the twelfth time in a row.

Of course, as soon as the transfer market reopens, the cards will be reshuffled. That will favour the record champions. At Sabener Strabe, they know exactly where the squad's weak points are (right side of defence, defensive midfield). Thanks to former Salzburg sporting director Christoph Freund, they now have sufficient expertise to successfully remedy these weaknesses.