England have reason to be optimistic against the Netherlands
A semi-final clash against the Netherlands now beckons for England, though the head-to-head between the two sides will be pretty grim reading for Southgate and co. The Three Lions have won just one of their last nine meetings with the Oranje (D4 L4).
In fact, among opponents England have faced 20+ times in their history, only against Brazil (15 per cent) do they have a lower win rate than they do against Netherlands (27 per cent).
This will be just the seventh competitive match between the two nations, with England winning just one of those previous six encounters (D2 L3) – recording a 4-1 thrashing in the group stage of Euro 1996.
The Opta ‘supercomputer’ does however, give the Three Lions a small reason to be optimistic, making them slight favourites for the tie with a 52 per cent chance of progressing to the final as opposed to the Netherlands’ 48 per cent.
England still in the stalls
There is little doubt that England have been hugely underwhelming at this year’s European Championships. After staggering through as winners of Group C with one win and two draws, Southgate’s side have continued to make hard work of the knockout stages.
They appeared to be all-but-exiting the tournament in the last 16, as they trailed Slovakia 1-0 heading into injury-time. However, a 95th-minute overhead kick from the phenomenon Jude Bellingham drew the Three Lions level before Harry Kane spared their blushes with a winning goal in extra time to seal their spot in the quarter-finals.
And if that felt tense, England’s quarter-final meeting with Switzerland really tested the mettle of the Three Lions. They fell behind after Monaco’s Breel Embolo fired the Swiss ahead on 75 minutes, but Bukayo Saka equalised in fine fashion just five minutes later to confirm another extra time.
It then all came down to five perfect penalties as Southgate’s side secured a nail-biting shootout victory against the Nati. It marked just the second time in their 10th shootout at a major tournament (World Cup / Euros) that England have scored every single one of their penalties in the shootout (5/5), after also doing so against Spain at Euro 96 (4/4).
The Three Lions have now reached the final four of consecutive European Championships for the very first time, after they finished as runners-up at the previous edition. And they will be hoping to earn a spot in the final once again, with just the small matter of the Netherlands standing in their way.
Going Dutch
The Netherlands’ form at Euro 2024 was mostly copy + paste to England’s in the group stages. Ronald Koeman’s side flattered to deceive in their opening matches – only advancing to the knockout rounds as one of the four best third-placed sides.
However, that is where the comparisons between the two nations stop. Unlike their upcoming opponents in Dortmund on Wednesday night, the Netherlands have been mightily impressive in the knockout stages of the competition.
Firstly, the Oranje comfortably dispatched Romania 3-0 in the last 16, before completing a second-half comeback against Turkey in the quarter-finals to clinch progression. The meeting with England will be their first semi-final appearance at the Euros since 2004, while it will be their first in a major tournament since they reached the final of the 2014 World Cup.
Although, the Netherlands’ form in semi-finals at European Championships will be one that they will be keen to quickly forget. They have been eliminated from four of their five semi-final ties at the Euros, with the only exception being a 2-1 win against hosts Germany in 1988, when they went on to lift the trophy.
The Three Lions' attack
Heading into this summer’s tournament in Germany, much of the concern regarding England’s tag as potential favourites was surrounding their perceived lack of defensive stability.
It was believed that instead, the Three Lions would have to rely on their imperious-looking front line to see them through games. Yet, that hasn’t been further from the case.
Southgate’s side have looked extremely bleak in attack – failing to score more than once across 90 minutes in all of their five games at the tournament thus far. Furthermore, they have accumulated an xG (Expected Goals) tally of 4.36, meaning that they have posted the sixth-lowest xG per game in the competition (0.87).
Remarkably, England’s very first shots on target in their two knockout matches have been their equalising goals. It’s something that surely can’t continue, right? Southgate’s side have averaged a meagre 3.2 shots on target per game at the Euros, which is the sixth fewest among the 24 sides to have appeared in the competition.
Having gone to extra time in both of their previous ties, England surely most not have many second chances remaining. Indeed, only Portugal at Euro 2016, Spain at Euro 2020, and Italy at Euro 2020 have ever gone to extra time three times in a single edition of the Euros.
Meanwhile, since Euro 1996, eight of England’s 11 matches in the knockout stages of the European Championships have gone to extra time, including each of the last four.
Gakpo the goal threat
In contrast, the Netherlands do have a lot more to be positive about. Koeman’s side have scored nine goals at the tournament, with Germany and Spain the only nations to have netted more (both on 11). And a large portion of the Oranje’s attacking potency can be laid at the door of Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo.
The 25-year-old has provided three goals and one assist so far in the competition, making him joint-top scorer with three other players heading into the final four. Impressively, across the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, the only European player with more goals than Gakpo (6) is Kylian Mbappé (9).
The Liverpool forward has been a constant menace for opposition defences, with his piercing inside runs from the left flank proving to be a real thorn in their side - his eight shots on target are the most of any player among the four teams left in the tournament.
It has not solely been about goals for Gakpo, mind. Only Joshua Kimmich (15) and Ferdi Kadioglu (12) have created more chances from open play than Gakpo (11), while he also provided the pressure that forced Mert Muldur to turn the ball into his own net during their quarter-final victory over Turkey.
And the Netherlands attacker will be someone that the England side are all too familiar with.
Gakpo has spent the last 18 months at Liverpool, although his outstanding performances at Euro 2024 is something that has largely yet to be seen in the Premier League. Though if the Three Lions are to have any hope of advancing to the final, they must ensure that Gakpo is stunted once again.